Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 14 months.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 10/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ also is systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,985.05, up 1.19%) closed above the closing prices of the previous 5 weeks on Tuesday, thereby reconfirming its preexisting short-term minor bounce. SPX remains rose above its 50-day SMA and rose further above its 200-day SMA.
NYSE total volume rose 3% to a level 9% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +245, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. After 9/18/14, the U.S. stock market entered a medium-term Secondary Reaction. Now, in order to reconfirm a Primary Tide Bull Market, both Averages must close at new all-time closing price highs. Otherwise, we’ll assume a continuing Secondary Reaction.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 10/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ also is systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 10/27/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 10/27/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/27/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell sharply since 10/13/14, and the OEF/SPY trend has turned neutral again. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to a new high on 10/15/14. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.78, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 17 months on 10/15/14. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 27 months on 10/27/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 10/27/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX has been trending down since it peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
22.19% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
2.12% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
6.07% , AMGN , AMGEN
6.77% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
2.02% , IGV , Software, IGV
5.87% , NCR , NCR
6.81% , CMI , CUMMINS
3.10% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
6.91% , AN , AUTONATION
4.24% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
3.98% , GLW , CORNING
2.97% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
3.11% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
2.85% , IWM , SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
2.35% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
1.37% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
3.41% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
2.03% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
3.74% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
4.86% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
3.57% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
4.11% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
1.11% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.45% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.22% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
1.62% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.32% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
2.22% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
1.03% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.32% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
1.15% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.46% , EIX , EDISON INTL
1.77% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.19% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-5.95% , COH , COACH
-6.64% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.72% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-5.68% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-3.21% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-2.88% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-4.06% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-3.61% , MAS , MASCO
-4.16% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
-2.46% , AET , AETNA
-1.17% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-2.07% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-1.06% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-0.60% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
-1.48% , TGT , TARGET
-0.28% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-0.58% , CLX , CLOROX
-0.45% , AVP , AVON
-0.08% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.74% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.75% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
-0.08% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.33% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.28% , ETR , ENTERGY
-0.30% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-0.27% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-0.02% , SO , SOUTHERN
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.98% , Brazil Index, EWZ
3.88% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3.88% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
3.49% , Latin Am 40, ILF
3.11% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
3.10% , Microcap Russell, IWC
3.07% , China 25 iS, FXI
2.99% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
2.96% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
2.91% , Italy Index, EWI
2.89% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.85% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
2.78% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
2.73% , Water Resources, PHO
2.71% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.71% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
2.69% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.57% , Spain Index, EWP
2.57% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.56% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.44% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.43% , Networking, IGN
2.34% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.32% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.32% , Germany Index, EWG
2.28% , Energy SPDR, XLE
2.27% , Energy DJ, IYE
2.17% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.16% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
2.15% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
2.12% , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.10% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.04% , Taiwan Index, EWT
2.01% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.95% , Energy Global, IXC
1.94% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.84% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.79% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.77% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.75% , Russia MV, RSX
1.73% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.72% , Australia Index, EWA
1.70% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.68% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.67% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.67% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.66% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.65% , Canada Index, EWC
1.65% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.60% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.60% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.57% , India PS, PIN
1.57% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.55% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.54% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.53% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.53% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.52% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.51% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.49% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.48% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.47% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.42% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.42% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.42% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.39% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.39% , Dividend International, PID
1.39% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.37% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.34% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.34% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.33% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.33% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.30% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.30% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.30% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.27% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.26% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.26% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.26% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.25% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.24% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.21% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.20% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.19% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.19% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.15% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.15% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.13% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.13% , Austria Index, EWO
1.11% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.09% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.08% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.08% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.08% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.08% , France Index, EWQ
1.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.08% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.08% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.06% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.06% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.05% , Global 100, IOO
1.01% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.00% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.99% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.97% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.95% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.94% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.89% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.84% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.83% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.81% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.74% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.70% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.66% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.65% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.62% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.59% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.53% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.44% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.43% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.39% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.38% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.32% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.32% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.23% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.16% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.14% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.03% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.00% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.08% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.15% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.25% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.33% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.63% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.04% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1967.34, 50-day SMA
1910.03, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
