Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 11/9/12. JJC price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this price weakness may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,379.85) fell 5.86% since 9/14/12, based on closing prices. On Friday morning, SPX fell below its lowest lows of the previous 13 weeks, down to its lowest level since 8/3/12.
The technical condition of the stock market does not support the excessive optimism that the bullish majority of stock investors and traders clearly exhibited over the past several months. Typically, action is followed by reaction, and so a downside shakeout or correction has produced losses for bullish investors starting from the second trading day after the latest Fed Quantitative Easing was announced on 9/13/12. The Bears have momentum on their side, at least for the short term and medium term–and perhaps beyond. Choosing safety over risk still appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
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*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 6 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1433.50, 50-day SMA
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1380.98, 200-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and TLT’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 119.87, 118.05, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned systematically bullish on 11/7/12 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and IEF’s 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 106.59, 106.42, 105.84, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.99, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/25/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JNK/LQD fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA has remained consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/1/12.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral on 11/9/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. TIP/IEF rose above its 200-day SMA on 9/27/12, and the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 10/10/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically neutral on 11/2/12 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.86, 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.36, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 10/15/12, confirming a loss of upside momentum. DBA turned systematically neutral on 9/17/12 when price crossed below its 50-day SMA. DBA price remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/7/12, confirming its preexisting bearish trend. USO turned systematically bearish on 9/19/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. USO price fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/17/12, and the 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.88, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/2/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. GLD turned systematically neutral on 10/23/12, when price fell below its 50-day SMA. GLD price rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12. GLD 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 9/20/12. Support: 162.30, 159.56, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 168.54, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral on 11/5/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA since 10/19/12.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/2/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. SLV fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV whipsawed back above its 200-day SMA on 11/5/12, and the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/1/12. Support 29.84, 29.28, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 32.23, 33.23, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/2/12, confirming its preexisting corrective trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. SLV/GLD has been trading around its 200-day SMA since 10/23/12. Longer term, SLV/GLD 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 10/9/12.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 10 weeks on 11/9/12. JJC price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/22/12 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 10/19/12. “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, and so this price weakness may be taken as a warning about economic conditions ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.22% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
3.14% , QLGC , QLOGIC
3.95% , BC , BRUNSWICK
3.35% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.43% , DOV , DOVER
3.20% , BA , BOEING
0.80% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.31% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
4.15% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.79% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
0.43% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
0.39% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
1.95% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
0.55% , MOLX , MOLEX
1.25% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
1.45% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
2.48% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
1.71% , RTN , RAYTHEON
1.47% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.76% , FAST , Fastenal Company
0.19% , IWF , Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.85% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
2.53% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.64% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
0.33% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
2.42% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
0.46% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.00% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.90% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
1.12% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
0.74% , BLL , BALL
0.35% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
0.24% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-14.08% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-5.96% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-0.33% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-4.04% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-4.84% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-3.28% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-2.82% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-5.40% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-1.50% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-3.30% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-3.62% , AEE , AMEREN
-3.33% , KBH , KB HOME
-1.76% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-2.43% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-2.03% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-1.56% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-0.27% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.93% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.96% , LOW , LOWES
-1.31% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-0.80% , CSX , CSX
-1.09% , MTB , M&T BANK
-1.32% , GPS , GAP
-0.78% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.82% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-1.12% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.87% , AES , AES
-0.25% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-0.77% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
-0.31% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.24% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-0.15% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.82% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.19% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.65% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.47% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.37% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.21% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.04% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.80% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.66% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.58% South Africa Index, EZA
0.51% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.49% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.46% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.43% France Index, EWQ
0.43% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.41% Australia Index, EWA
0.41% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.38% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.36% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.32% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.28% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.28% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.28% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.27% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.27% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.26% South Korea Index, EWY
0.25% Austria Index, EWO
0.24% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.24% Energy Global, IXC
0.24% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.22% Russia MV, RSX
0.21% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.21% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.20% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.20% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.20% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.19% Networking, IGN
0.19% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.19% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.15% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.15% Singapore Index, EWS
0.15% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.14% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.14% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.14% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.14% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.13% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.12% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.12% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.12% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.11% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.11% Canada Index, EWC
0.10% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.10% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.09% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.09% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.07% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.06% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.05% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.05% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.04% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.04% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.04% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.04% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.03% Energy DJ, IYE
0.01% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.01% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.00% Spain Index, EWP
0.00% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.01% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.01% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.03% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.03% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.03% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.03% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.03% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.05% Global 100, IOO
-0.05% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.05% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.05% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.05% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.06% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.07% Dividend International, PID
-0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.07% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.07% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.08% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.08% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.08% Italy Index, EWI
-0.09% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.09% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.10% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.11% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.13% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.15% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.16% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.16% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.16% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.17% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.17% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.20% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.21% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.23% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.25% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.26% Water Resources, PHO
-0.27% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.27% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.27% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.28% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.31% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.32% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.33% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.33% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.33% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.34% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.36% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.37% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.37% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.41% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.45% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.48% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.53% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.56% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.61% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.63% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.68% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.78% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.80% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.81% Germany Index, EWG
-0.82% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.09% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.12% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.56% India PS, PIN
