Large Cap Stocks Gaining Strength, Small and Mid Caps Losing Strength

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/16/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.

Large Cap stocks are gaining strength. The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/16/14, thereby suggesting a significant rally. Although OEF/SPY remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA, a shift in momentum appears to be at hand now.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) and the S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio both fell below their lows of the previous 19 months on 7/16/14, thereby confirming their preexisting bearish trends.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) is now systematically bearish again.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 16 months on 7/16/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose to a new 13-year high on 7/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.

Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,981.57, up 0.42%) absolute price opened higher but quickly reversed to the downside. It never declined into minus territory, however. An afternoon rally recovered most of the morning loss from the open. SPX eroded mildly lower in the final 90 minutes. SPX closed below open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing prices of the previous 7 trading days.

NYSE total volume rose 1% to a level 3% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 226, has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.

Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 turned down from a peak of 91 on 7/7/14, which was below its June peak above 98 set on 6/4/14, for another example of bearish divergence.

For the stock market, end/beginning of month and pre-holiday (4th of July) bullish seasonal tendencies have now expired, stock prices are overbought and overvalued, sentiment indicators are off the charts and into the danger zone, bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always). These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/16/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose further above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/14/14. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/14/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price of QQQ rose to a 13-year high on 7/3/14 and remains systematically bullish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/16/14, thereby suggesting a significant rally. Although OEF/SPY remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA, a shift in momentum appears to be at hand now. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/16/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/16/14, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked on 7/1/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.60, 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 7/11/14, thereby confirming a significant downtrend. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 weeks on 7/15/14, reconfirming a significant downside correction. USO price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price jumped above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/10/14, thereby confirming its bullish trend. The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 7/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 10 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price jumped above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/10/14. SLV remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/14/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 6/16/14, but SLV/GLD is still weeks away from a bullish 50>200 SMA crossover.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/3/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
17.07% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
9.16% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
6.32% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
8.32% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
4.81% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
7.03% , SVU , SUPERVALU
9.27% , INTC , INTEL
5.01% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
3.27% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
3.30% , BBY , BEST BUY
3.84% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
0.90% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
2.64% , CTAS , CINTAS
1.96% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.15% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.46% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.15% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.82% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.53% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.05% , IBM , IBM
2.01% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.25% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
2.15% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
0.74% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
2.60% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
0.40% , IVV , S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
2.22% , NBR , NABORS
2.44% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
1.64% , TXT , TEXTRON
1.48% , F , FORD MOTOR
1.74% , XRX , XEROX
2.16% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
0.65% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-15.13% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-11.77% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-7.07% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-4.78% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-2.45% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-3.13% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.14% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-3.47% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
-5.11% , YHOO , YAHOO
-2.52% , TJX , TJX
-2.52% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-2.08% , LB , L Brands, LB
-0.13% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.45% , AVP , AVON
-1.03% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-2.65% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-0.99% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-1.45% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-0.64% , CIEN.N , CIENA
-1.25% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-0.93% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-0.24% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-0.74% , MTB , M&T BANK
-1.90% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-0.13% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.32% , KEY , KEYCORP
-1.32% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-0.44% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.28% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-0.64% , GLW , CORNING
-0.98% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-0.85% , DLX , DELUXE
-0.24% , WAG , WALGREEN
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.53% , Italy Index, EWI
1.65% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.55% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.53% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.52% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.52% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.51% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.50% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.46% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.37% , India PS, PIN
1.36% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.31% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.22% , Energy Global, IXC
1.17% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.16% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.07% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.06% , Russia MV, RSX
0.95% , Germany Index, EWG
0.94% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.92% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.91% , Canada Index, EWC
0.90% , Spain Index, EWP
0.90% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.85% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.85% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.82% , France Index, EWQ
0.80% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.79% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.77% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.77% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.75% , Global 100, IOO
0.75% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.74% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.72% , Dividend International, PID
0.71% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.69% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.69% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.67% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.65% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.63% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.62% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.61% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.60% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.60% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.59% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.57% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.56% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.54% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.54% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.53% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.53% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.49% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.48% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.47% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.46% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.44% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.43% , Austria Index, EWO
0.42% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.41% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.41% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.40% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.40% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.40% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.39% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.37% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.37% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.36% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.35% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.35% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.34% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.34% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.33% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.33% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.32% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.32% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.32% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.31% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.31% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.30% , Australia Index, EWA
0.30% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.29% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.28% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.28% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.26% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.25% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.25% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.24% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.24% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.23% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.22% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.19% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.18% , Networking, IGN
0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.16% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.16% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.15% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.15% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.11% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.08% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.08% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.08% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.08% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.04% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.04% , Water Resources, PHO
0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.03% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.03% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.02% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.03% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.03% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.03% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.04% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.07% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.08% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.12% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.12% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.13% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.13% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.13% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.14% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.16% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.17% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.20% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.22% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.24% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.27% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.29% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.30% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.33% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.33% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.35% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.35% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.42% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.44% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.61% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.22% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.47% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1985.59, high of 7/3/2014

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1952.86, low of 7/10/2014
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1932.72, 50-day SMA
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1841.19, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009