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USD/CHF – Dollar rebounds from three-month double-bottom low
May 19, 2015
USD/CHF has rebounded from the double-bottomlow that was initiated on May 7th at .9071 and then nearly retested on Thursday at .9077, which establish more than a three-month low. The rebound with the greenback occurs after a couple of weeks of poor US economic releases that have swayed market expectations to believe that the Fed will not raise rates in June and that a September hike is now debatable.
In addition to the noted double-bottom pattern, price action on the USD/CHF daily chart displays a confluence of support from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, that comes from the record low that was made when the Swiss National Bank shocked the FX world and abandoned its cap on EUR/CHF and triggered franc strength against to all its major trading partners, to the March high.
The bearish channel in red shows that since bouncing off the lower boundary level, price could be poised to make a run towards the 200-day SMA average. If the partial recovery and rebound extend beyond the confluence of SMAs, further upside could target parity.
If this dollar advance fails, key support may come the psychological .9000 handle. A breakdown of that level could see major support protect the .8800 zone.
The trade: Buy USD/CHF at .9200 with a stop loss at .9150 and a take profit at .9450. The Risk/Reward Ratio is almost 1:5.