Utilities and Energy Stocks Confirmed Relatively Bearish

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend.

Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend.

Utilities (XLU) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a major downtrend.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,767.69, down 0.24%) absolute price opened modestly lower and closed at about the same level in dull, indecisive trading on Tuesday.

The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE fell to its lowest level in more than 3 weeks on Tuesday, thereby signaling a bearish divergence compared to the major price indexes. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line also declined but remained above the previous week’s low. Both Lines remain systematically bullish above 50- and 200-day day SMAs, but both remain well below their recent highs. Previously, on 10/29/13, the Up-Down Volume Line failed to rise above its September high to confirm the higher high for the S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index, thereby signaling bearish divergence.

Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 appear relatively weak in recent weeks. They have stubbornly remained bearishly divergent below previous highs for the year as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs over recent months.

Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 10/29/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. On 11/8/13, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new closing price high but the Dow-Jones Transportation Average diverged by failing to rise to a higher closing price high.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/12/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/8/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/12/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 2 months on 11/8/13, thereby confirming its preexisting downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular trend may still be in effect.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/7/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 10/30/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 11/7/13, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200- day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/8/13. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/12/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. Price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 121.72, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 19.83, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/4/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.00% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
3.51% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
2.68% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
0.62% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.42% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
4.71% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
1.59% , FDX , FEDEX
1.24% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
2.08% , LOW , LOWES
2.06% , AES , AES
1.89% , MON , MONSANTO
3.99% , XRX , XEROX
0.75% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.08% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
1.08% , INTC , INTEL
1.60% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
0.83% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
1.09% , TXT , TEXTRON
0.68% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
0.26% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.84% , AZO , AUTOZONE
1.01% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.07% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
0.40% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
2.87% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
0.73% , BIG , BIG LOTS
0.55% , HSP , HOSPIRA
1.04% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
0.05% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.77% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.44% , IR , INGER RAND
1.05% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
0.27% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-10.43% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-2.51% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.25% , PCG , PG&E
-2.09% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.91% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.21% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-2.36% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.16% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.69% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-1.81% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.01% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-3.02% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-1.57% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-2.71% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.14% , ACE , ACE
-1.53% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-2.20% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.66% , STT , STATE STREET
-1.88% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.55% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-1.28% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-1.34% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-1.19% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.96% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.72% , CB , CHUBB
-1.15% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.81% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.00% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-0.52% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.30% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.37% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-0.56% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-1.76% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.28% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.86% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.77% , Networking, IGN
0.75% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.62% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.50% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.47% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.44% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.40% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.39% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.36% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.27% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.23% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.20% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.19% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.18% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.16% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.11% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.08% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.07% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.06% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.05% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.05% , Austria Index, EWO
0.05% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.04% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.03% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.01% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.01% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.00% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.00% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.01% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.02% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.04% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.05% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.06% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.06% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.07% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.07% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.09% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.09% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.11% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.12% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.12% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.12% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.12% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.12% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.13% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.14% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.14% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.14% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.15% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.15% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.16% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.16% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.17% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.20% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.21% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.22% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.23% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.23% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.24% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.24% , Global 100, IOO
-0.26% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.28% , Dividend International, PID
-0.28% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.28% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.29% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.29% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.30% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.30% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.31% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.31% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.32% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.32% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.32% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.34% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.34% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.34% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.40% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.40% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.41% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.41% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.43% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.44% , France Index, EWQ
-0.44% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.45% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.46% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.50% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.52% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.52% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.53% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.53% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.54% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.59% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.59% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.60% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.65% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.66% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.66% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.67% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.68% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.70% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.71% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.74% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.75% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.82% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.83% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.84% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.84% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.85% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.85% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.87% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.89% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.92% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.93% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.93% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.96% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.98% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.99% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.00% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.00% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.07% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.14% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.15% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.16% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.21% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.30% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.81% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.81% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.88% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.94% , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.09% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.20% , India PS, PIN
-2.51% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.91% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1775.22, high of 10/30/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1715.69, 50-day SMA
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1633.18, 200-day SMA
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009